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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward script. It frequently functions as a form of apology. Our apologies we underestimated your squad in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct path: the coach who engineered the biggest improvement receives the prize. However, it sparks an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring superior leadership or merely the greatest shock.

However this year's competition is fundamentally different. The pool of contenders is exceptionally talented. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been unpredictable, with recent conference champions fading and recent strugglers ascending collectively. During an typical season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in this chaotic and entertaining year, he's up against five other elite coaches.

This is how the hypothetical ballot could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters love signal-callers. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. From Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's prolonged dominance. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an attack built entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a heavy helping of play-action and a innovative passing attack that springs wide-open receivers everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been able to conjure big plays from broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Virtually every bet – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the building with the level of expectations Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a normal season, he would be the overwhelming favorite. But the current isn't a typical year!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term success. However he comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has engineered a rapid turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has mastered the off-field aspects, which wasn't a given following his initial public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, Coen bet on newbies. From the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the team stumbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting consistent ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year case has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the season in October. Instead, it made it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

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