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New Yorkers will discover the identity of their next mayor this election day, in a race that will determine who runs and protects the nation's most populous metropolis at a moment when the former president has threatened to send military troops to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has matched two distinctly opposing Democrats against one another. The contest has turned into an increasingly bitter face-off, laced with accusations of racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading candidates that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the young democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has brought global notice. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the backing of wealthy contributors and big business.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who beat Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has run on a agenda of affordability and pledged to freeze rent for about 2 million New Yorkers, has outpaced his rival by significant margins across all surveys taken in October, and it is very much the younger man's election to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, Cuomo, who resigned as governor in 2021 amid allegations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has criticized his opponent's goals as unrealistic, and in recent days chuckled along as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was widely condemned as bigoted after sharing an artificial intelligence video that included a slew of racial caricatures and showed his opponent freeing a group of criminals.

It's been a particularly ugly end to an race that could be critical to the path that the Democratic party, struggling in its reaction to the former president's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the coming years.

National Implications

If the progressive secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his bid will be forced to reckon with a message that has appealed to voters' frustration at economic disparity, inflation and the political elite. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least some of the candidate's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the newcomer has generated an enthusiasm within the party arguably not seen since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House in 2016.

However, if Cuomo, who had been predicted to win easily in the Democratic primary, achieve a remarkable comeback win, it could cement national Democrats' current model of considered, lackluster opposition – a strategy that has angered grassroots members. A NYC defeat of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to remain in the center – even as polls show the current iteration of the Democratic party is widely disliked nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Voters in New York seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that his backers are much more excited about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident during the race. The candidate's snappy videos on social media, his hopeful outlook for New York and his willingness to actually get out and connect with voters in the city has drawn an force of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them young or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

Yet, Cuomo, 67, isn't giving up. And with the risks against him, the ex-leader has turned to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might resonate, Cuomo has concentrated on targeting Mamdani personally. He has called his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an "radical", and popped up on conservative media for an interview with a rightwing host, where the candidate asserted the city “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It hit bottom recently, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Political Landscape

This strategy echoes much of what the former president, who has sent the military reserves to Washington DC and threatened to do the same to NYC, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to the Republican in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to elect Cuomo into office, as other influential figures have urged Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the race.

Political Histories

As far as the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should never have come to this point. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, started his mayoral bid in last year, few had heard of him, and in reality, few even noticed.

The former governor, by contrast, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held every edge. The quintessential establishment figure, he had married a Kennedy and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as New York governor in 2011, seventeen years after his father, the former governor, left office from the same position.

Mamdani, who was elected to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – offer a brighter outlook of the future than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, Mamdani has faced some challenges in the final phase, after footage surfaced suggesting him implying the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the recording, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. The progressive, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was questioning cooperative programs between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, Mamdani appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to his opponent's escalating attacks.

The progressive addressed Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first ran for state assembly, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a realization, he said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could express their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must leave our beliefs.”

Addressing the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd