A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Each composes two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he stated. "One side will succeed here and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
